Our Purpose

To make projecting fantasy football outcomes as accurate as possible. Helping you win your season-long, DFS, or Bestball leagues by setting the most advantageous lineups available.

Our Methods

This is the full walkthrough of how we turn Vegas player props into fantasy football projections. Player projections are built off of the player prop bets sourced from various online sportsbooks. Specific props (e.g. Pass Yards, Rush Yards, etc.) simply take the O/U amount as that often represents an accurate median amount for what the sportsbook projects for that player's output. This is because the sportsbooks have usually decided on a player prop amount that nets them the same amount of money regardless of the outcome. This can be evidenced by the fact that the lines on these props are often very close to even (e.g. +105/-115). Other props (e.g. Pass TDs, Rush TDs, Interceptions, etc.) are more complex as the Sportbooks tend to rely more on the odds themselves in order to net themselves equal amounts on either side of the bet. For these bets you'll typically see the same values across player (e.g. O/U 1.5 Pass TDs or O/U .5 Interceptions thrown), but with more dramatic odds based on the implied likelihood of each outcome (e.g. the Over may be +170 while the Under is -220). This presents an even more difficult scenario when we consider that these odds are not linear and the longer the odds become, the more Sportsbook tend to take a larger cut (VIG). To account for this, we use a devigging method known as the Power Method to calculate the implied probability of various outcomes. Refer to the below example:

Josh Allen has the following Pass TDs odds:
1 or more: -550
2 or more: -120
3 or more: +340

This can also be represented in the decimal odds format as follows:
1 or more: 1.18
2 or more: 2
3 or more: 5.25

In order to calculate the implied odds of each we divide 1 by the longest odds:
1/5.25 = .1905 or a 19.05% likelihood

We then divide the next longest odds and subtract the previous odds (as the odds of 2+ Pass TDs also include the possibility of 3+ Pass TDs.) We subtract the previous odds to isolate the likelihood of only throwing 2 Pass TDs.:
1/2 - .1905 = .3095 or a 30.95% likelihood

Do the same for the odds of 1 Pass TD:
1/1.18 - .1905 - .3095 = .3475 or 34.75% likelihood

Finally, calculate the remaining odds of throwing 0 Pass TDs: 1 - .1905 - .3095 - .3475 = 15.25% likelihood

We can then calculate the Projected Fantasy Points by multiplying each outcome by its implied likelihood, taking the sum, and multiplying it by your league settings. The example below assumes 4 pts per Pass TD:
(3*.1905 + 2*.3095 + 1*.3475 + 0*.1525)*4 = 6.15 points.

Once all individual player props are calculated in this manner, the unique scoring settings for your league are sourced and aggregated to determine the overall projections by player.

We additionally offer the ability to view player projections by their implied floors and ceilings based on the sportsbooks alternative player props for each player.

How Trade Values Are Calculated

The values on our Trade Value Chart page are built on the same Vegas-backed projections described above, then layered with positional scarcity and (for Dynasty) a multi-year aging model. Every value is placed on a normalized 0–10,000 scale so players can be compared across positions. Here is what drives the number.

The inputs. Each player starts with a season-long point projection derived from sportsbook player props and adjusted for your league's exact scoring settings (PPR, TE premium, passing TD value, etc.). We then convert raw points into value over replacement — how much a player outscores the best freely available player at his position given your roster slots and number of teams. A 30-point edge at a scarce position (e.g. a starting QB in Superflex) is therefore worth more than the same edge at a deep position. Player age is pulled in to drive the Dynasty aging curve.

Redraft vs. Dynasty. Redraft values are based purely on this season's projected value over replacement — they answer "who helps me win this year?" and ignore age entirely. Dynasty values blend that current-season number with a simulated career projection: we carry a player's production forward year by year, apply position-specific decline curves (running backs lose value fastest and peak earliest; quarterbacks and tight ends age the most gracefully), and discount future seasons back to today. Elite players are modeled to decline more slowly than replacement-level players at the same age. The result weights long-term outlook more heavily than the current season, which is why a young ascending player will rank higher in Dynasty than in Redraft, and an aging star will rank lower.

Known limitations. Because the values are built almost entirely from projections, there are a few blind spots we want to be transparent about:

  • Injuries. Projections do not fully capture a player's current health, so an injured player can look more valuable than the market treats him. Conversly, an injured player will have a depressed current season projection, which will impact his full career projection. Therefore, injured players could simultaneously be overvalued in redraft while undervalued in dynasty. These injury designations have been affixed to every player for this reason.
  • Depth-chart climbers & handcuffs. A talented rookie or backup sitting behind a starter carries a low projection today, so the model undervalues him relative to the upside the Dynasty community pays for. This effect is most pronounced in Dynasty.
  • Projection-anchored upside. The model reflects the consensus statistical outlook, not breakout speculation or draft-capital narratives. It is intended as one rigorous, differentiated data point — not the final word — and tends to be most useful for Redraft leagues and contending Dynasty teams.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do you turn Vegas player props into fantasy football projections?

We take player prop lines (e.g. Pass Yards, Rush Yards, Receptions) from online sportsbooks and use their over/under and odds to calculate the implied probability of each statistical outcome. For simple over/under props, the line itself is treated as the median expected output. For multi-outcome props (e.g. touchdowns), we de-vig the moneyline-style odds using the Power Method to isolate the true implied probability of each outcome, then multiply by your league's scoring settings to produce a projected fantasy point total.

What is the Power Method and why do you use it to de-vig odds?

Sportsbooks build a profit margin (the vig) into their odds, so the raw implied probabilities from a prop's odds don't sum to 100%. The Power Method removes that margin so the resulting probabilities reflect the sportsbook's true expectation of the outcome, rather than being skewed by their built-in edge.

Are Vegas-based fantasy football projections more accurate than standard ones?

Sportsbooks price player props with real money on the line across millions of bets, so the lines tend to reflect a highly efficient, up-to-date market view of a player's expected output. We track our projections' weekly accuracy against other industry projections on the homepage.

How are Win With Odds trade values calculated?

Trade values start from the same Vegas-backed season-long point projections, convert them to value over replacement given your league's roster settings, and (for Dynasty) layer in a multi-year aging curve. Every player is placed on a normalized 0–10,000 scale so values can be compared across positions.

Contact

For all questions, concerns, praise, and league gossip email: [email protected]